Forecasting economic indicators using a consumer sentiment index: Survey‐based versus text‐based data

Given the confirmed effectiveness of the survey‐based consumer sentiment index (CSI) as a leading indicator of real economic conditions, the CSI is actively used in making policy judgments and decisions in many countries. However, although the CSI offers qualitative information for presenting current conditions and predicting a household's future economic activity, the survey‐based method has several limitations. In this context, we extracted sentiment information from online economic news articles and demonstrated that the Korean cases are a good illustration of applying a text mining technique when generating a CSI using sentiment analysis. By applying a simple sentiment analysis based on the lexicon approach, this paper confirmed that news articles can be an effective source for generating an economic indicator in Korea. Even though cross‐national comparative research results are suited better than national‐level data to generalize and verify the method used in this study, international comparisons are quite challenging to draw due to the necessary linguistic preprocessing. We hope to encourage further cross‐national comparative research to apply the approach proposed in this study.     

基于l1范数主成分分析的极化SAR图像变化检测

为提高极化合成孔径雷达(synthetic aperture radar, SAR)图像变化检测算法的鲁棒性以及检测精度,提出基于范数主成分分析(linorm principal component analysis,l1-PCA)模型的变化检测算法。首先,采用基于Hotelling-Lawley复矩阵迹变化检测算子构造差异图;其次,采用l1-PCA模型获取差异图的变化信息,使得每个像素以一个特征向量来表示;最后,使用k-means算法对变化信息进行聚类,得到变化检测结果。该方法是一种非监督变化检测方法,相比于基于2范数的PCA检测方法,l1-PCA在特征提取方面具有更高的鲁棒性,并且可以进一步提高变化检测精度。基于RADARSAT-2卫星获取的3幅图像进行的实验结果表明,相较于其他两种典型算法,所提算法更加稳定,精确度更高。     

活动重叠对缩短资源受限项目工期有效性研究

活动重叠是项目赶工的一种常用手段,但并非所有活动的重叠执行均能有效缩短项目工期.识别和评估项目中活动重叠对缩短项目工期的有效性,避免无效的活动重叠及资源的浪费,对于解决资源受限项目调度问题具有重要的理论和现实意义.针对现有进度生成机制在处理带有活动重叠的资源受限项目调度问题上的不足,本文建立整数线性规划模型并对小规模算例进行精确求解.在对求解结果统计分析的基础上识别影响活动重叠有效性的关键因素,为项目调度中制定重叠策略提供指导.通过一个算例验证预先识别有效的活动重叠对提升启发式算法性能和优化项目调度结果具有积极作用.     

The effect of target function on the predictive performance of the two‐stage ridge estimator

The main thrust of this study is to consider the problem of simultaneous prediction of actual and average values of the simultaneous equations model through the target function of Shalabh (Bulletin of International Statistical Institute, 1995, 56, 1375–1390). We focus on the predictive performance of the two‐stage ridge estimator with the motivation for eliminating the disorder arising from multicollinearity. An optimal biasing parameter of the two‐stage ridge estimator is derived by a minimization process of prediction mean square error. In addition, an optimal estimator for the weight of observed value in target function is attained theoretically. The results inferred from a numerical example and a Monte Carlo experiment provide a dramatic improvement in the predictive ability of the two‐stage ridge estimator.     

Microbes,mathematics, and models

Microbial model systems have a long history of fruitful use in fields that include evolution and ecology. In order to develop further insight into modelling practice, we examine how the competitive exclusion and coexistence of competing species have been modelled mathematically and materially over the course of a long research history. In particular, we investigate how microbial models of these dynamics interact with mathematical or computational models of the same phenomena. Our cases illuminate the ways in which microbial systems and equations work as models, and what happens when they generate inconsistent findings about shared targets. We reveal an iterative strategy of comparative modelling in different media, and suggest reasons why microbial models have a special degree of epistemic tractability in multimodel inquiry.     

HPLC-ELSD测定安神宝颗粒中3种成分

为完善安神宝颗粒的质量控制标准,采用高效液相色谱法同时测定安神宝颗粒中酸枣仁皂A、东莨菪内酯、槲皮素3种有效成分,采用Agilent Zorbox SB C18色谱柱(4.6mm×150mm,5μm)及蒸发光散射检测器,柱温35℃,流动相为甲醇-0.5%的冰醋酸水溶液,梯度洗脱,流速为1.0mL/min,进样量10μL。结果表明,在该色谱条件下,3种有效成分均完全分离,峰面积对数与进样量对数呈良好的线性关系(r=0.995 6~0.998 0);精密度、重复性、稳定性试验结果符合要求,各被测组分的平均回收率在94.74%~96.08%之间。液相色谱法操作简单,准确度、灵敏度高,可用于检测安神宝颗粒中的有效成分,对完善安神宝颗粒质量标准,提升药品的质量控制水平具有实际意义。     

基于LQG控制的整车8-DOF系统振动分析

建立了整车8-DOF系统动力学模型,考虑了主动悬架控制,并增设了主动座椅控制,设计了车辆主动悬架系统的LQG控制器。基于Matlab仿真平台建立了整车8-DOF系统动力学仿真模型,对所得最优控制策略下的动态响应进行了仿真验证。仿真结果表明:为了改善人椅系统质心及车身质心的跳振性能需要在一定程度上弱化各轮轮胎动位移性能。从控制效能上来看,该最优控制器能够满足各行驶状态下对悬架性能的要求,改善了车辆的行驶平顺性。     

差异化定价策略下的远洋洲际班轮航速与航线配船优化

针对远洋洲际集装箱班轮航速与航线配船优化问题,在考虑集装箱货物时间价值的基础上,通过分析在往返两个长航段上船舶航速变化对货物运输时间的影响,构造了对即期市场客户随航速变化的差异化定价函数,以船公司周利润最大化为目标,构建了集装箱班轮航速与航线配船混合整数非线性规划模型,设计离散化求解算法.算例验证了模型和算法的有效性和适用性.结果表明,差异化定价策略下的航速与航线配船优化,不仅可以降低客户集装箱货物的时间成本,而且也能够明显地增加船公司的运输收益.此外,使最优航速阶梯型下降的燃油价格阈值会随着收益增量比例系数的提高而增大.研究结论可以为船公司航线配船决策提供科学的参考.     

基于非线性修正策略的空气质量预警系统研究

建立科学、有效的空气质量预警系统,对于保护人们的身体健康和促进社会和谐稳定具有重要的科学价值和实际意义.为此,本文首先利用孤立森林(isolationforest,iForest)算法进行空气质量指数(air quality index,AQI)离群点分析,然后建立了一种空气质量预警系统,该系统由数据预处理模块、优化模块、预测模块和修正模块构成,融合了时变滤波经验模态分解(time varying filtering based empirical mode decomposition,TVF-EMD)、改进的蝴蝶优化算法(modified butterfly optimization algorithm,MBOA)、离群鲁棒极限学习机(outlier robust extreme learning machine,ORELM)和非线性修正策略,该预警系统成功地实现了空气质量的有效预警.同时,以污染程度不同的5个城市作为实验地点对预警效果进行检验,结果表明:1)与经验模态分解(empirical mode decomposition,EMD)相比,TVF-EMD可以更为有效地降低原始数据的非线性和非平稳性特征;2)基于MBOA的误差非线性修正策略比其他误差修正策略更胜一筹,可以显著提高预警系统的性能;3)建立的预警系统的性能要优于其他对比模型,可以对污染程度不同的城市进行有效预警.     

创新研究系统隐性知识生成转化反馈环特性仿真分析

隐性知识反馈环结构是创新研究系统的核心结构,运用组织管理系统动力学理论,进行科研创新系统隐性知识生产转化系统仿真研究,以南昌大学系统动力学创新团队研究系统为例,分析确定该系统的隐性知识量、显性知识量、创新投资量、团队人员数和创新成果量五个核心变量,运用新建的逐枝建模和逐树仿真技术建立五棵流率基本入树模型及其等价流图模型.运用枝向量行列式新增反馈环计算法,计算出系统包含创新成果流位作用于隐性知识流入率的第一类反馈环五条,团队成员数作用于隐性知识流入率第二类正反馈环十条.然后,结合模型的仿真曲线和仿真数据,对第一类反馈环进行极性转移仿真分析和主导反馈环转移仿真分析,对第二类正反馈环进行正反馈环的作用分析,以及"原始创新度"低对这十条正反馈环的制约分析,并基于上述十五条反馈环特性仿真分析结果提出四条创新研究系统发展对策.